From the Vault: Some Razors

On the basis that a re-post is better than no post, here is one from the vault (time having been precious for the last few days because of my involvement, in a professional capacity, in a large court case which starts on Monday . . .

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In philosophy, a razor is a principle or rule of thumb that allows one to eliminate ("shave off") unlikely explanations for a phenomenon, or avoid unnecessary actions. Or, they are guides to explaining things. 

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Occam’s Razor: 

“Entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity.” 

Simpler version: 

Simpler explanations are more likely to be correct; avoid unnecessary or improbable assumptions. 

Comments: 

• The simpler explanation must satisfy all available evidence. Just because an explanation is the simplest one available, doesn’t make it the best one. If it fails to explain or ignores key facts, then it remains problematic. The best explanation then, is the one that fits the evidence, using the fewest assumptions. 

• Occam’s Razor, named after William of Ockham (1285–1347), is also illustrated by a maxim taught to medical students: Think horses, not zebras. In other words, if investigating illness, explore the commonplace before the exotic. 

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Grice's Razor: 

As a principle of parsimony, conversational implications are to be preferred over semantic context for linguistic explanations. 

Simpler version: 

When in a conversation, prefer what the speaker meant over what the sentence he/she spoke literally meant. 

Comments: 

• Named after British philosopher and language expert Paul Grice (1913 – 1988), the razor requires that context should be looked at to determine meaning, not just what is being said, in isolation. 

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Hanlon's Razor: 

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. 

Simpler version: 

Think stupidity before evil intent. 

Comments: 

• Named after Robert J Hanlon bit there is doubt as to whether he did in fact coin it. 

• Never rule out the possibility of stupidity and malice in combination. 

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Hitchens's Razor: 

"What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence." 

Simpler version: 

The burden of proof regarding the truthfulness of a claim lies with the one who makes the claim, and if this burden is not met, the claim is unfounded, and its opponents need not argue further in order to dismiss it. 

Comments: 

• The concept is named, echoing Occam's razor, for the journalist and writer Christopher Hitchens, who in a 2003 Slate article formulated it thus: "What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence". 

• The dictum also appears in God Is Not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything, a book by Hitchens published in 2007. 

• Hitchens's razor is actually an English translation of the Latin proverb quod grātīs asseritur, grātīs negātur ("What is freely asserted is freely dismissed"), which was commonly used in the 19th century. It takes a stronger stance than the Sagan standard ("Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"), instead applying to even non-extraordinary claims. 

• It reminds me of the dictum expounded by James Randi and his Skeptics Foundation: If two explanations are possible for something and one is consistent with known laws of the universe and the other requires suspension of such knowledge and beliefs, the former should prevail until the second is proven. 

• Thus if a child wakes on Christmas morning and finds presents under the tree, two explanations are possible: Mum and Dad put them there the night before or Santa came down the chimney and delivered them. The former should be adopted until the second is proven.

More razors to come.

Quote for the Day

We Didn't Start the Fire, continued

Continuing a brief look at the events and persons listed in Billy Joel’s “We Didn’t Start the Fire”.

Each two lines represent a year.

1955:

Joseph Stalin, Malenkov, Nasser and Prokofiev
Rockefeller, Campanella, Communist Bloc
Roy Cohn, Juan Peron, Toscanini, dacron
Dien Bien Phu falls, "Rock Around the Clock"
Einstein, James Dean, Brooklyn's got a winning team
Davy Crockett, Peter Pan, Elvis Presley, Disneyland
Bardot, Budapest, Alabama, Krushchev
Princess Grace, "Peyton Place", trouble in the Suez

Einstein:

Albert Einstein (1879-1955) is regarded as the most important scientist of the 20th century. A German-born theoretical physicist, he developed the theory of relativity, one of the two pillars of modern physics (alongside quantum mechanics). His work is also known for its influence on the philosophy of science. \He is best known to the general public for his mass–energy equivalence formula E = mc2, which has been dubbed "the world's most famous equation". Einstein received the 1921 Nobel Prize in Physics "for his services to theoretical physics, and especially for his discovery of the law of the photoelectric effect", a pivotal step in the development of quantum theory. Whatever all of that means. He also discovered how to put bubbles in beer. (For overseas readers, watch the Oz film Young Einstein). 

Relevance to 1955: 

Einstein died on 18 April 1955 aged 76 after experiencing internal bleeding caused by the rupture of an abdominal aortic aneurysm. He refused surgery, saying, "I want to go when I want. It is tasteless to prolong life artificially. I have done my share; it is time to go. I will do it elegantly." He died the next day. 

By the way: 

- Einstein was supposedly slow to talk. He told his biographer he didn’t start speaking until at least age three. Stanford economist Dr. Thomas Sowell coined the controversial term “Einstein Syndrome” to describe exceptionally bright people whose speech is delayed. 

- A few days after Zionist leader and first President of Israel Chaim Weizmann died on November 9, 1952, Einstein was asked if he would accept the position of being the second president of Israel. Einstein, age 73, declined the offer. In his official letter of refusal, Einstein stated that he lacked the “natural aptitude and the experience to deal properly with people.” 

- Part of Einstein’s charm was his dishevelled look. In addition to his uncombed hair, one of Einstein’s peculiar habits was to never wear socks. To Einstein, socks were a pain because they often would get holes in them. 

- Einstein married the only female student in his physics class, Mileva Maric, but gave her his Nobel Prize money to obtain a divorce. He subsequently married his cousin. 

By the way #2: 

A classic limerick reads: 

There’s a notable family named Stein, 

There’s Gert and there’s Ep and there’s Ein. 

Gert’s prose is all bunk, 

Ep’s sculpture’s just junk 

And nobody understands Ein. 

I suggest a slight change: 

There’s a notable family named Stein, 

There’s Gert and there’s Ep and there’s Ein. 

Gert’s prose is all junk, 

Ep’s dead in his bunk 

And nobody understands Ein.

 

James Dean: 

James Dean (1931-1955) was an American actor best remembered as a cultural icon of teenage disillusionment and social estrangement, as expressed in the title of his most celebrated film, Rebel Without a Cause (1955), in which he starred as troubled teenager Jim Stark. The other two roles that defined his stardom were loner Cal Trask in East of Eden (1955) and surly ranch hand Jett Rink in Giant (1956). After his death in a car crash, Dean was nominated for posthumous Best Actor Oscars for East of Eden in 1955 and for Giant in 1956, the only person to have ever had 2 posthumous nominations. 

Relevance to 1955: 

Dean also cashed in his chips in 1955, aged 24. A fan of motor racing, he won a number of events and had hoped to race in the Indianapolis 500 but scheduling prevented this. While working on “Giant,” the studio contractually barred him from racing. But upon finishing the film, he traded in the Speedster for an even more powerful Porsche 550 Spyder, which he nicknamed “Little Bastard.” On the afternoon of September 30, 1955, as Dean drove his brand-new Porsche Spyder to a road race in Salinas, California, a police officer ticketed him for going 65 mph in a 55-mph zone. Just over two hours later, a Ford Tudor sedan collided with Dean, who broke his neck and suffered severe internal injuries He was pronounced dead on arrival at a nearby hospital. To this day, it’s unclear whether he was speeding at the time. A coroner’s jury found the crash to be accidental. 

The famous Failure Analysis Associates, from Menlo Park, California, reconstructed and recreated all details of the accident at the same approximate time on September 30 and have concluded that James Dean was travelling 55 to 56 mph when the fateful accident occurred, thereby proving he had not been speeding, as rumour had it.

By the way: 

A controversial scene from Giant that had had Dean/Jesus in a crucifixion pose with Liz Taylor/Mary at his feet has become iconic: 

…as has the 1955 moody photo of Dean alone in the rain in the middle of Times Square, a study in isolation and sadness: 

Dean also appears prominently in Gottfried Helnwein's painting Boulevard of Broken Dreams (1984). The work is a redepiction of Edward Hooper’s Nighthawks. Helnwein has replaced the three patrons with American pop culture icons Humphrey Bogart, Marilyn Monroe, and James Dean, and the attendant with Elvis Presley. According to Hopper scholar Gail Levin, Helnwein connected the bleak mood of Nighthawks with 1950s American cinema and with "the tragic fate of the decade's best-loved celebrities." 

Edward Hoppers Nighthawks 

Gottfried Helnwein’s Boulevarde of Broken Dreams

One final BTW:

Reportedly, Dean was very much in love with television and film actress Pier Angeli and they planned to marry.  Her mother blocked the union because Dean was not Catholic and she helped arrange Pier's marriage to Vic Damone. Before she committed suicide, Pier wrote that Dean was the only man she had ever really loved.

James Dean and Pier Angeli

Thought for the Day

From the Vault: Said Hanrahan

A repost from September 2, 2010, a 1921 poem that has particular application today. . . 

Whereas Australia’s best known poets, Banjo Patterson and Henry Lawson wrote of the bush from a perspective of visiting city dwellers, whether romantic (Patterson) or harsh and cruel (Lawson), John O’Brien wrote as a person who actually lived in rural towns and participated in that existence.

John O'Brien was the psuedonym of Patrick Joseph Hartigan (1878-1952), who was born in Yass, New South Wales. Hartigan was a Roman Catholic priest in the Goulburn diocese and later parish priest at Narrandera, rural towns in New South Wales.

O’Brien’s poems are gentler, more affectionate of rural life and its people, descriptive of essential features such as farming, the Irish and the church. In many ways they are similar to Steele Rudd's anecdotes and stories in On Our Selection, but in poetic form.

“Said Hanrahan” (1921) gently pokes fun at the pessimism of the Irish Catholics and the attitude that sees difficulty in each situation, but against a backdrop of very real drought, floods and bushfires, constant threats in the Australian landscape and the Australian psyche.

The poem remains relevant today as new generations face difficulties in the environment and in society.

Said Hanrahan

- John O'Brien

"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,

In accents most forlorn,

Outside the church, ere Mass began,

One frosty Sunday morn.

The congregation stood about,

Coat-collars to the ears,

And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,

As it had done for years.

"It's looking crook," said Daniel Croke;

"Bedad, it's cruke, me lad,

For never since the banks went broke

Has seasons been so bad."

"It's dry, all right," said young O'Neil,

With which astute remark

He squatted down upon his heel

And chewed a piece of bark.

And so around the chorus ran

"It's keepin' dry, no doubt."

"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,

"Before the year is out."

"The crops are done; ye'll have your work

To save one bag of grain;

From here way out to Back-o'-Bourke

They're singin' out for rain.

"They're singin' out for rain," he said,

"And all the tanks are dry."

The congregation scratched its head,

And gazed around the sky.

"There won't be grass, in any case,

Enough to feed an ass;

There's not a blade on Casey's place

As I came down to Mass."

"If rain don't come this month," said Dan,

And cleared his throat to speak -

"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,

"If rain don't come this week."

A heavy silence seemed to steal

On all at this remark;

And each man squatted on his heel,

And chewed a piece of bark.

"We want an inch of rain, we do,"

O'Neil observed at last;

But Croke "maintained" we wanted two

To put the danger past.

"If we don't get three inches, man,

Or four to break this drought,

We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,

"Before the year is out."

In God's good time down came the rain;

And all the afternoon

On iron roof and window-pane

It drummed a homely tune.

And through the night it pattered still,

And lightsome, gladsome elves

On dripping spout and window-sill

Kept talking to themselves.

It pelted, pelted all day long,

A-singing at its work,

Till every heart took up the song

Way out to Back-o'-Bourke.

And every creek a banker ran,

And dams filled overtop;

"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,

"If this rain doesn't stop."

And stop it did, in God's good time;

And spring came in to fold

A mantle o'er the hills sublime

Of green and pink and gold.

And days went by on dancing feet,

With harvest-hopes immense,

And laughing eyes beheld the wheat

Nid-nodding o'er the fence.

And, oh, the smiles on every face,

As happy lad and lass

Through grass knee-deep on Casey's place

Went riding down to Mass.

While round the church in clothes genteel

Discoursed the men of mark,

And each man squatted on his heel,

And chewed his piece of bark.

"There'll be bush-fires for sure, me man,

There will, without a doubt;

We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,

"Before the year is out."

My contribution as an alternative or updated last verse, with apologies to John O'Brien . . .

The world has gone to crap, me man,

The worst that I recall;

We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,

When Covid takes us all."

Quote for the Day

Golda Meir (1898 – 1978) 

was an Israeli teacher, stateswoman, politician and the world's fourth and Israel's first and only woman to hold the office of Prime Minister.  She has been described as the "Iron Lady" of Israeli politics, the term later applied to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

Some pics

You had one job . . . and you nailed it! . . . 

Lately, everything seems to remind me of Donald trump. . . 

. . . even Donald Duck upside down . . .

On the topic of Donald Trump:

At a plastic surgeon's premises. . .

At an art show, don't look up . . . 

At another gallery . . .

Meanwhile, in quarantine . . . 

Some Covid Poems

 Some Coronavirus Poems to the Editor

New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/opinion/letters/coronavirus-poems.html

-----oOo-----

The Before Times

Before we were living in a pandemic, we went to lunch with

our friends in restaurants & slurped soup with crackers

we crushed with our bare fingers, our ordinary fingers

that did not ignite terror, that were not vectors of disease.

Before the days of self-isolation, shopping was just another chore,

sometimes a pleasure, a stroll through Costco sampling

from little paper cups protein bars & chocolate candies &

popcorn & potato chips, strolling & sampling & buying

big bags of broccoli & spinach & Asian cashew salad

& giant containers of gourmet cheese & yes, toilet paper.

The Before Times have receded deep into memory as if

all of that happened ten, no, twenty years ago

when we lived in another land of freedom & movement

& laughter & hugging & sitting in each other's

living rooms, living, alive, chatting for hours without

measuring the social distance, without wearing N95

surgical masks or nitrile gloves, without anxious fear.

Now we are living in another land, frightened & confused,

our minds always tasked with remembering to wash our hands,

not touch our faces, not touch packages or mail without

gloves & Clorox wipes & yes, remembering to worry,

as if anxious worry could create a high wall surrounded by a moat

of reeking & fuming disinfectant to keep us safe in this new land

of contamination & fever & suffocation & death.

We must not forget the Before Times, when we could touch

doorknobs, doorbells, the mail, U.P.S. packages, restaurant tabletops,

colleagues’ keyboards, other people’s hands, our own faces.

We must not forget dinner parties, book groups, political rallies,

concerts, movies, worship services, protests, weddings, funerals.

In the Before Times we shared our joys & sorrows together.

Will we ever live together again?

BONNIE SHAW

Salt Lake City

 -----oOo-----

Wish

The weeks go by, the fourth, the fifth,

And normalcy’s become a myth.

I want to hug, I want to hold,

I want this deadly scourge controlled.

I want to walk amidst a crowd.

I want to lift this morbid shroud.

I sit, sequestered in my home,

And yearn to mingle, travel, roam.

My energy is out of whack —

I want my normal problems back.

ERIKA FINE

Brookline, Mass.

-----oOo-----

The following poem – “What If Instead Of Behind These Kids Are Ahead” -  was published on a blog by American mother of two Jaime Ragsdale, who has said that she posted it on social media after seeing countless “discouraging” messages concerned that the coronavirus is creating a big learning gap due to missed schooling. 

The poem, which has divided opinion, suggests that our children might actually benefit from this time of profound stress and loss; that it might teach them to enjoy simple pleasures, develop greater empathy, and value the “previously invisible essential workers”– like supermarket shelf stackers, truck drivers, teachers and health care workers – who are taking care of us now, and in doing so, putting their own lives at risk.

The poem has, however, divided opinion.  In contrast to the above it has been argued by some that the poem’s lessons are the sole preserve of the privileged, who are untouched by financial or mental struggles, leaky roofs, or the stress of guiding children with learning problems, that not all parents can manage to deliver all this beauty in home isolation.  It is suggested that parents in those situations don’t benefit from someone else telling them all the other things they haven’t managed to get their kids to do yet.

So what do you think . . .

What If Instead Of Being Behind These Kids Are Ahead?

What if, instead of falling behind, our kids are advanced?

What if they have more empathy, they enjoy family connection, they can be more creative and entertain themselves, they love to read and express themselves in writing?

What if they enjoy the simple things, like their own backyards and balconies, sitting near a window in the quiet?

What if they notice the birds and the dates and different flowers emerge and the calming renewal of a gentle rain shower?

What if our kids are the ones to learn to cook, organise their space, do their laundry and help keep a well run home?

What if they learn to stretch a dollar and live with less?

What if they learn to plan shopping trips and make meals at home?

What if they learn the difference between want and need?

What if they learn the value of eating together as a family and finding the good in sharing the small delights of every day?

What if they are the ones who place great value on our teachers and educational professionals, librarians, public servants and the previously invisible essential workers like truck drivers, grocers, cashiers, healthcare workers... just to name a few who are taking care of us right now while we are sheltered in place?

What if among these children a great leader emerges who had the benefit of a slower pace and simpler life to truly learn what really matters in life?

What if they are ahead?

By Jaime Ragsdale

https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/a-viral-poem-is-helping-parents-through-covid-19-but-some-disagree-20200424-p54n24.html

Quote for the Day